Big Ten football predictions: Week 1

We’re back for another season of Big Ten college football. I took a summer sabbatical. I didn’t do any writing for football or basketball in any way, shape or form. Now it’s time to get back into the swing of things. I figured the best way to break my silence is to do game picks for the first week of Big Ten college football.

Last season, I finished 76-29 for 72 percent. In my second year of doing this for Deceptive Speed, that needs to improve. First glance at the week 1 schedule, it looks pretty favorable for the Big Ten to win 13 of them. Northwestern won’t beat Stanford on the road. The only other tough one honestly is Wisconsin at South Florida on a Friday evening.

Speaking of that, the schedule for week 1 in the FBS as a whole is messed up. Two games last Saturday. A bunch of games coming Thursday, a handful on Friday then the action really picks up Labor Day weekend. The Big Ten has one game on Thursday, four on Friday and the rest on Saturday.

Some quick Big Ten thoughts: Ohio State is going to run away with the conference. Wisconsin, Iowa and Nebraska will be fighting in the West. Northwestern will go from Big Ten Championship game to maybe missing a bowl. Michigan is grossly overrated. Michigan State’s defense will make up for their lack of an offense and Penn State has a five-star running back who is about to be the lead back in Happy Valley.

That was my little preview for the 2019 season, which are all going to be proven wrong by the middle of October. But let’s start with what week 1 is going to look like. Each matchup write up will also serve as kind of a preview for every team.

Thursday, August 29

South Dakota State at Minnesota

TV Schedule: FS1, 8 p.m. CT

Stadium: TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

This is South Dakota State, not the powerhouse North Dakota State. Minnesota should win this. The Jackrabbits only beat one FBS team in recent history, and that was to Kansas. Every team has beaten Kansas in football besides Rutgers. It looks like Tanner Morgan will be starting under center for the Gophers in week 1. Minnesota returns a 1,000 yard rusher in Mohamed Ibrahim and Carter Coughlin comes back with 9.5 sacks from a year ago.

Prediction: Minnesota 24, South Dakota State 10

Friday, August 30

#19 Wisconsin at South Florida

TV Schedule: ESPN, 6 p.m. CT

Stadium: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL

On the road in Florida at the end of August to start the season doesn’t sound ideal for Wisconsin. South Florida snuck into a bowl last year after winning just three conference games but got blasted by Marshall. They return their nucleus in the run game. Wisconsin’s top-two returning defensive players are Chris Orr and Scott Nelson. Jack Coan has had an entire offseason to prepare as the Badgers starting quarterback. The best running back in the country Jonathan Taylor will be getting the ball over 20 times per game. And the wide receiver core actually looks pretty deep now that Quintez Cephus has been ruled eligible.

Prediction: Wisconsin 30, South Florida 21

Tulsa at #18 Michigan State

TV Schedule: FS1, 6 p.m. CT

Stadium: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI

Tulsa has just a total of five wins in the last two seasons. The Golden Hurricane has just two bowl appearances in seven years. Phillip Montgomery led them to two in his first two seasons, but the train has derailed for him since. Michigan State is my pick for the best defense in the Big Ten once again. Kenny Willekes is returning for his 10th season after recording 8 sacks last year. There are 3 guys coming back with 2 or more picks. And that doesn’t even include Joe Bachie, who wracked up over 100 tackles. The offense is still going to be a mystery with Brian Lewerke trying to figure out how to be a quarterback in the Big Ten.

Prediction: Michigan State 21, Tulsa 3

UMass at Rutgers

TV Schedule: BTN, 6:15 p.m. CT

Stadium: HighPoint.com Stadium, Piscataway, NJ

Usually I wouldn’t give a crap about UMass and just talk about how the Big Ten team will beat up on them. But they’re playing Rutgers. The Minutemen are Independent and aren’t that competitive at the FBS level. Some could say the same thing about Rutgers since joining the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights haven’t won more than four games in four years. Last year was the worst season since 2002 for Rutgers. The thing that makes this intriguing is that UMass beat UConn last year. And the Huskies went 1-11. Rutgers went 1-11 last year. And how does Rutgers get any better?

Prediction: UMass 17, Rutgers 10

Purdue at Nevada

TV Schedule: CBSSN, 8:30 p.m. CT

Stadium: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Nevada finally gets back to a bowl and wins eight games, but their quarterback is gone. The Wolf Pack will be starting a guy that has never thrown a collegiate touchdown. Good thing they’re returning most of their playmakers on the offense. Nevada’s big time performers on defense are gone. But the good news for them is that Purdue lost their quarterback who threw a ton of yards last season to go along with their top-two running backs. Rondale Moore will be a threat to any defense no matter who is throwing the ball. Markus Bailey will be one of the top linebackers in the Big Ten after recording over 100 tackles and 6.5 sacks.

Prediction: Purdue 21, Nevada 13

Saturday, August 31

FAU at Ohio State

TV Schedule: Fox, 11 a.m. CT

Stadium: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH

The only things you need to know about Florida Atlantic is that Lane Kiffin is their head coach and they went from 11 wins in his first season to five in his second. He did have to play a true freshman quarterback and you expect a better outcome than 12 touchdowns and 12 picks. But their running back Devin Singletary who rushed for over 1,300 yards and 22 touchdowns is in the NFL because I drafted him in my rookie fantasy draft. The leader of this fine website tried to, but he couldn’t. It doesn’t matter that Urban Meyer isn’t the head coach for the Buckeyes anymore. They got Justin Fields as a transfer quarterback. JK Dobbins, K.J. Hill and two five-star receivers are there.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, FAU 21

South Alabama at Nebraska

TV Schedule: ESPN, 11 a.m. CT

Stadium: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, NE

South Alabama, or what I like to call them, USA, has only been FBS eligible since 2012. The Jaguars have made two bowls, but that doesn’t pose a threat here in week 1. If there ever was a team that started 0-6 one year and has so much going for them the next, Nebraska is your team. The offense finally bought into Scott Frost when they hung 53 on Minnesota. Their only two losses after that was a five-point defeat to Ohio State and a three-point game to Iowa. Adrian Martinez is poised to have a wonderful season. He has his top receiver in JD Spielman coming back. The Cornhuskers will finish top-three in the West this season.

Prediction: Nebraska 35, USA 14

Howard at Maryland

TV Schedule: BTN, 11 a.m. CT

Stadium: Maryland Stadium, College Park, MD

I’m not even going to worry about finding anything on Howard. They’re usually one of the favorites to win a really bad college basketball conference, but I’m not concerned about the Bison football team. Maryland has a Virginia Tech transfer at quarterback. Josh Jackson threw almost 3,000 yards with 20 touchdowns and just 9 picks 2 seasons ago. Anthony McFarland is a nice reliable back. But they don’t have much returning in the passing game. The Terrapins haven’t won more than six games since their first year in the Big Ten. So I’m not too high on them, but this game is against Howard.

Prediction: Maryland 24, Howard 3

Akron at Illinois

TV Schedule: BTN, 11 a.m. CT

Stadium: Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL

Akron is Akron. The Zips hail from Erik’s second favorite conference. They’re on an every other year bowl appearance right now. The Zips are returning their quarterback, his favorite target and a couple nice key defenders. Illinois isn’t Rutgers terrible, but Lovie Smith hasn’t done them any favors. Lovie and his ugly beard are back. This time he has a former four-star transfer quarterback Brandon Peters. There’s an 1,000 yard rusher in Reggie Corbin coming back, but no standout receivers. Bobby Roundtree recorded 8.5 sacks last season and Illinois has nine interceptions coming back between seven players.

Prediction: Illinois 13, Akron 10

Indiana at Ball State

TV Schedule: CBSSN, 11 a.m. CT

Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Ball State has really struggled throughout the years. Another team from the MAC. The Cardinals lost their quarterback and top running back. The new guy has plenty of returning targets. The defense brings a lot, but they stunk up the joint last year. One of these years Peyton Ramsey is going to win more ball games for Indiana. He has his 1,000 yard rusher coming back in Stevie Scott. Ramsey also has two guys who caught 40 or more passes last season. The defense is going to be alright. Jerome Johnson had 3.5 sacks last season and Bryant Fitzgerald came up with three picks.

Prediction: Indiana 27, Ball State 13

Idaho at #15 Penn State

TV Schedule: BTN, 2:30 p.m. CT

Stadium: Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA

Well this will be over by the end of the first quarter. Fresno State put up 79 on the Vandals last season. It really doesn’t matter who is returning on their side or not. The quarterback situation may be a little sticky. Sean Clifford did throw two touchdown passes, but the Nittany Lions were solid with Trace McSorley. Penn State does have another great running back coming in. Ricky Slade was a five-star last season and did run the ball 45 times with six scores. KJ Hamler is a very solid wide out. Penn State’s defense should be one of the best in the Big Ten. Yetur Gross-Matos had 8 sacks last season, Robert Windsor had 6.5 and Shaka Toney with 5.

Prediction: Penn State 45, Idaho 10

Northwestern at #25 Stanford

TV Schedule: FOX, 3 p.m. CT

Stadium: Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA

I actually have to put some thought into this because Stanford is a power-conference team. Well the Cardinal is returning their starting quarterback of the last two seasons in K.J. Costello. He isn’t putting Stanford in the top 10, but they are staying competitive and bowl eligible. But they have a five-star in Davis Mills from 2017 in the waiting. The same recruiting class produced the best tight end that year and Colby Parkinson is poised for a big year. Northwestern has to replace Clayton Thorson. That is going to be a huge hole. Running back Isaiah Bowser is back, but their top-two receivers are gone. Earnest Brown recorded four sacks and JR Pace came up with four picks.

Prediction: Stanford 24, Northwestern 13

Middle Tennessee at #7 Michigan

TV Schedule: BTN, 6:30 p.m. CT

Stadium: Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI

Middle Tennessee has made four-straight bowl games. They are replacing their starting quarterback. The coach’s son is no longer throwing footballs for the Blue Raiders. Their top running back and receiver are coming back. MTSU also has a couple nice pass rushers with a nice defensive back. Shea Patterson is coming back for Michigan, but he just never made the leap into an elite quarterback for a great team. Michigan also lost it’s top two running backs. Donovan People-Jones is back for what seems like his 10th season along with Nico Collins who had more yards than People-Jones in nine less receptions. The defense is what puzzles me. The Wolverines are still looked upon as one of the top-defensive units in the conference, but man, did they lose a lot from last year.

Prediction: Michigan 27, Middle Tennessee 14

Miami (OH) at #20 Iowa

TV Schedule: FS1, 6:30 p.m. CT

Stadium: Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA

Miami (OH) just missed out on bowl games the last two seasons. They really don’t pose a threat to Iowa in week 1 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes will be competing near the top for the best defense in the Big Ten. I hate to say it, but Iowa is my favorite to win the West. Returning Nate Stanley is helping sway my pick to the Hawkeyes. Northwestern, Wisconsin and Purdue are all starting new quarterbacks. Losing their top rusher and two NFL tight ends is hard, but the defense looks great. A.J. Espensa could lead the Big Ten in sacks this year. They have two more great DB’s in Geno Stone and Michael Ojemuda.

Prediction: Iowa 24, Miami (OH) 3

Photo courtesy of UWBadgers.com