College football gambling picks: Early bowls

Erik Buchinger -

End Bowl Shaming

It was a push on last week’s college football gambling picks as Navy lost by seven points against Army. Everybody is a winner on God Bless America Saturday, but that puts us at 81-77-3 on the season.

These are my picks for the early bowl games starting now all the way through the day before the New Year’s Six. If you don’t understand this language, this includes games from Friday, December 14 through Friday, Dec. 28. We’ll get to the bigger games once we get a little closer.

I don’t know about you, but I despise the people who question why there are as many bowl games as there are. This needs to stop. If watching dudes play an extra game of football makes you that upset, you need to relax and enjoy life a little more.

This argument has slowly died down recently, but as a college football community we have been bowl shamed for far too long, and it always makes me uncomfortable. After I’m done typing this article, I am going to crawl on in to my safe space and cry like the triggered snowflake millennial that I am.

It’s time to #EndBowlShaming by getting rich off these GUARANTEED winners.

Mary Hardin-Baylor, Mount Union UNDER 53

Yeah, we’re starting with Division 3 football. The majority of my college sports work has been at the D3 level, so you best believe I know what I’m talking about. This national title game is called the Stagg Bowl if you’re unfamiliar. The last two Stagg Bowls have combined for 29 points. In Mary Hardin-Baylor’s last two games, the average number of points scored was 42. For Mount Union’s last two games, it’s an average of 48. All of these numbers are lower than 53. Take the under.

Fun fact: A friend of mine covered the Stagg Bowl in 2016 and started on fire on the sideline. Deceptive Speed reached out to her for comment.

“It was extremely cold, so I took a quick break and stood by the space heater,” Morgan Van Lanen said. “Little did I know, a gust of wind pushed my parka into the heater and caught on fire. It then caused my leg to catch fire. Thank gosh I was wearing three pairs of pants and thick Under Armour leggings. My leg got a small burn, but I was able to use my hand to get the flame out before it did any damage. A medic basically begged me to drop my pants so he could inspect my burn. I refused because I had a game to cover! It was my journalistic duty to ignore the burn until after the game and keep taking photos. This was a once in a lifetime opportunity I wasn’t going to miss due to a little leg fire. Unfortunately, I had to throw away my beloved parka after the game.”

A truly incredible moment in journalism history.

North Texas +8 vs. Utah State

An important aspect of bowl betting is looking at who is left on the coaching staff with all the early December turnover, and I’m all over North Texas in this spot. Utah State lost its head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech. Some coaches are staying for the bowl game before joining him. No way they are focused on this game especially with the new early Signing Day rules, and they’ve graduate assistants taking over important spots. And that team is favored by more than a touchdown against a North Texas team that finished 9-3 and destroyed Arkansas. Take North Texas big in the New Mexico Bowl.

UAB/Northern Illinois OVER 44

This game is being played on a Tuesday night. Northern Illinois plays in the MAC, so that offense knows how to get things done in this spot. In the last five games involving Northern Illinois, the score has gone higher than 44 four times. Same with UAB. Not sure why this number is so low. Take the over in the Boca Raton Bowl.

Marshall -2.5 vs. USF

This is actually a home game for USF, but I’m still taking Marshall here. South Florida has been an absolute disaster down the stretch of this college football season. The Bulls started out 7-0 with wins over Power 5 teams Georgia Tech and Illinois. Since then, USF has lost five straight games, and all have been by double digits. There’s some quit in these boys, so I’m taking Marshall in the Gasparilla Bowl.

Georgia Tech -5.5 vs. Minnesota, UNDER 60

BIG. BET. ALERT. BIG. BET. ALERT. Hit the sirens because lots of dollars are going on Georgia Tech rolling in and laying the smackdown on Minnesota. This is Paul Johnson’s last game at Georgia Tech. He runs the triple option, and that is going away next season. I could see lots of transfers out of Georgia Tech after this game, so they’re going to be ready to go and locked in for one final game for the man who recruited them. PJ Fleck just signed his big extension, so he’s got no motivation Bowl games come down to who’s motivated. Take Georgia Tech big in the Quick Lane Bowl. Also, I like taking the under in triple option games, so go ahead and do that while you’re at it.

Baylor/Vanderbilt OVER 55

This number is waaaaaay too low. In each of the last four bowl games Vanderbilt has played in, the total has gone over 55. What does that have to do with this game? Absolutely nothing. In the last six Baylor Bowl games, the average total is 83 points. That’s a lot. But it also does not have anything to do with this game. Bottom line: when I see Vanderbilt and Baylor playing each other, I think points. Just do it and you’ll be a happier person for doing so.

Also, I went to high school with the punter for Vanderbilt. His name is Parker Thome. I hope I don’t see him because I need points, points and more points in the Texas Bowl.

Auburn/Purdue UNDER 54

In nine games against Power 5 teams, Auburn games have totaled 54 or under eight times. That’s a lot of times. Take the under in the Music City Bowl.

Iowa State Moneyline

What does Iowa State do to highly-ranked teams? The Cyclones not only cover, but they beat them. I’m all in on Iowa State beating Washington State outright here despite the 3.5-point spread. Iowa State beat West Virginia this year, and Iowa State beat Oklahoma last year. The lesson is to not be good when you’re playing against Iowa State. Washington State is good. Take Iowa State in the Alamo Bowl.

Sergio Pettis

I know absolutely nothing about MMA, but on Saturday I will be in attendance at UFC on FOX 31 watching dudes beat up on other dudes.

Bout, card, bantamweight, arm bar, sanction. These are all UFC terms. I’m now an expert.

Sergio Pettis is from Milwaukee, and I don’t think Vegas is taking into account the home-cage advantage in this bout. Take Sergio Pettis to DESTROY Rob Font. Rob Font. What kind of name is that? Doesn’t sound like a winning name to me.

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