Each week of the 2021 college football season, I will request betting advice for the five biggest games of the upcoming Saturday from people I match with through dating apps in with a season-long competition against myself. We did a version of this in the past before Vegas likely shut down what will go down as the most successful sports betting + online dating collaboration to ever exist. The pics were hot, but the picks were even hotter as Tinder matches correctly picked six consecutive bowl games against the spread before our reign of terror over the sportsbooks ended.
Professional sports bettors have access to all the same numbers, spreadsheets and data, but this is an untapped market we’re going after in what has been a highly profitable endeavor to this point.
This is also a unique way to find the next Ms. Deceptive Speed and the eventual Mrs. Deceptive Speed at some point. Unoriginal pickup lines have gone stale, and I expect staying power with this strategy. The sad truth is studies have shown half of all marriages will end in divorce with one of the major reasons being financial struggles, but as the old saying goes couples who pick winners together stay together.
Is there anything more romantic than a night in watching Akron and Bowling Green hit the under on a Tuesday evening? I dream of a fall night under the stars as we discuss whether Oregon State‘s injured right tackle is going to be the difference in the Beavers’ ability to contain BYU‘s four-man front as we track the ESPN Gamecast play by play in the final hours of a Saturday. It’s as if I’m reading from a love story.
I’m probably not going to place actual real dollars on any of these games until sports betting goes live in Wisconsin, which is expected to happen in a limited capacity in November, or if I find myself in a state where it’s already legal. What I am betting on is love this college football season. Even if I fall short short in this contest, I’m the real winner in the long run with a wife who can support us with her pure, college football genius.
Georgia +3 vs. Clemson
Erik’s pick: Clemson
We used to live in a world where blowouts dominated Week 1 of the college football season, but thankfully that’s not the case anymore. Okay fine, we have 15 games with a point spread of more than 30 points this weekend, but still having potentially the best regular season game of the year occur during Week 1 is fantastic. I cannot wait for this game, though there’s a good chance I miss a portion of it as fall weddings remain legal in my state.
Georgia has all the talent in the world and should be a College Football Playoff team every season. Unfortunately for Kirby Smart, the Bulldogs continue to fall short for a variety of reasons including the existence of Nick Saban. A full season of J.T. Daniels is a significant upgrade for Georgia, and the Bulldogs should be among the favorites to win the national championship. D.J.Uiagalelei will step in for Trevor Lawrence, but don’t expect a regression at the Clemson quarterback position. With how down the ACC is, Saturday could be Clemson‘s last chance at a regular season win over a top-25 opponent, so this is a much bigger game for the Tigers than it is for Georgia.
Sizzling hot pick: Clemson, bc i follow a couple from there on tik tok hahaa😂 and he plays for them(:
Penn State +5.5 vs. Wisconsin
Erik’s pick: Wisconsin
Wisconsin‘s offensive line is filled with very good players and if one of those very good players has to leave the game, that very good player will be replaced by another very good player. The Badgers are going to have a significant advantage in this area over Penn State, whose biggest defensive weakness is on the defensive line as the Nittany Lions replace two players who are now in the NFL and one who is at Florida, in addition to one of the expected key contributors potentially being ruled out for the season.
Defensively, Wisconsin’s strength is going to be in its front seven with a rushing defense that ranked among the best in the country last season. Teams simply stopped trying to run against the Badgers, which saw the third fewest rushing attempts per game against them in 2020. Sean Clifford will need to win this game for Penn State, and it’s hard to see that happening in his third straight season with a new offensive coordinator. Head coach James Franklin said he would like to see backup quarterback Ta’Quan Roberson get some meaningful reps in games, which is probably something that would not be said if the starter was lighting it up during practice.
Sizzling hot pick: Wisconsin cause its my home state🤷♀️
Alabama -19.5 vs. Miami
Erik’s pick: Alabama
I have long been out of the bet against Nick Saban in a season opener business and those who remain in it are very bad businessmen or businesswomen because nobody gets his team ready for Week 1 better than him. According to Chris Fallica of College GameDay, who’s an excellent source for college football betting nuggets, Saban is 6-0 against the spread against ranked opponents in season openers at Alabama with an average margin of victory of 23.7 points.
The last time we saw Miami play a football game, quarterback D’Eriq King tore his ACL during the Cheez-It Bowl. He is expected to be 100% when he takes the first snap on Saturday, but Alabama has as good of a linebacker group as you’ll see in college football with studs across the board that should be able to track down King in the running game. It’s impossible to know what to take away from a pandemic-impacted season but in the Hurricanes’ two toughest games in 2020, they lost 42-17 to Clemson and 62-26 to North Carolina.
Sizzling hot pick: Miami because ive never beem to florida. i havent been to either lol idk just picked one hahaa
LSU -2.5 vs. UCLA
Erik’s pick: LSU
UCLA is one of three Power 5 teams that saw the field in Week 0 in a blowout win over Hawaii. The Bruins took advantage of a weak Rainbow Warriors rush defense, and Chip Kelly didn’t need to show a ton of what they’re going to run on offense against LSU on Saturday. The Tigers might have the best cornerback duo in the country, and I have my doubts in the success of UCLA’s passing game with Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who completed just 50% of his passes in Week 0. The Bruins’ best chance at offensive success will be in the running game, and that could be effective against LSU.
The Tigers are the ultimate wild card team heading into 2021. One team in college football has expectations that range from missing a bowl game to winning the national championship, and it’s LSU, which is why I would never touch this game if I wasn’t just betting on love this season. Not being involved in the interview process of last year’s defensive coordinator Bo Pelini was a bizarre admission from Ed Orgeron, who overhauled his coaching staff with new offensive and defensive coordinators. We don’t really know what to expect from the LSU defense, but we know it will be better than its 2020 version.
Sizzling hot pick: LSU bc uscla seems like theyd suck
Louisiana +8 vs. Texas
Erik’s pick: Louisiana
Louisiana is a trendy pick because of how it played last season highlighted by a season-opening victory over Iowa State, but of course oddsmakers are factoring that into this line. Texas could have tons of value if this number drops to a touchdown or lower by kickoff, though that seems unlikely. One of the hottest quarterback battles in the country was announced recently as Hudson Card will get the start in Week 1 for the Longhorns as a redshirt freshman who thrown three passes at the college level.
Rajin’ Cajuns head coach Billy Napier passed on multiple SEC head coaching jobs, and he seems content on being patient for his next opportunity. He should have his name mentioned for plenty of high-profile jobs with how good his team should be on both sides of the ball in 2021. With an upset victory over Texas, Louisiana will be favored every game the rest of the way and could flirt with an undefeated season.
Sizzling hot pick: ill pick texas. Idk seems like theyd b better hhaa
Final betting cards
Erik’s picks (0-0): Clemson -3 | Wisconsin -5.5 | Alabama -19.5 | LSU -2.5 | Louisiana +8
Sizzling hot picks: (Record ATS 0-0): Clemson -3 | Wisconsin -5.5 | Miami +19.5 | LSU -2.5 | Texas -8
The Best Bet
The best bet of the entire college football weekend will have to wait till Sunday night when Notre Dame travels to play Florida State. The downsides to taking the Fighting Irish in this spot are the lack of returning offensive linemen, a downgrade at the quarterback position and potentially the biggest home-field disadvantage of the entire weekend. Still, we’re taking Notre Dame as our bet most likely to cash in Week 1.
The Seminoles could have an Alex Smith-like story of the year with former UCF quarterback McKenzie Milton, who nearly lost his leg and hasn’t been healthy enough to take a snap since the injury occurred on Nov. 23, 2018. He has been battling with Jordan Travis for the starting job, and head coach Mike Norvell will not reveal who the starter will be till team’s first offensive play on Sunday.
With questions at quarterback for Florida State, Notre Dame knows exactly what it has in Jack Coan. He will not be nearly as effective in the running game as Ian Book was last season but after watching every snap Coan took at Wisconsin, he plays mistake-free football, which is likely all the Irish need to cover this number against Florida State. The Seminoles haven’t finished with a regular season record above .500 for five years in a row, and oddsmakers project they will not be a bowl team in 2021. It’s unrealistic to expect them to hang with a team whose last game was in the College Football Playoff.
Erik’s pick: Notre Dame -7.5
Photo courtesy of UWBadgers.com
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