Welcome to Crash the Board, our daily look at college basketball’s biggest games from a sports betting perspective with a guaranteed winner. Our daily goal is to make you rich, make your children love you and keep your wife from leaving you. That’s a Crash the Board guarantee.
What a weekend it was for college basketball. With the NFL in the rear view mirror, the focus of sports in America finally turned its attention to college hoops as the nation begins its annual crash course for March Madness preparation. Plenty of money can be made in the final week of February, so let’s dive in to Monday night’s action.
#11 Louisville @ #8 Florida State
FSU -2.5
O/U 140.5
6:00 CST, ESPN
By the end of Monday night, the winner of this game will be sitting as the top team in the ACC, while the loser is hangin’ out in third place. Louisville dominated North Carolina and Syracuse their last 2 games, which sounds impressive but it’s not. Neither Jim Boeheim or Roy Williams are coming close to NCAA Tournament consideration. Florida State won 3 in a row, coming off a road win over NC State on Saturday.
These are two incredibly evenly matched teams from a gambling perspective, but Florida State got the win 78-65 in early January. I side with the Seminoles covering the 2.5 at home even if big fella Steven Enoch returns for Louisville, but the better play is the over. Louisville hit the over in 8 of its last 12 games, and Florida State did the same in 7 of its last 10.
#17 West Virginia @ Texas
WVU -5.5
O/U 127
6:00 CST, ESPNU
There is no atmosphere quite as electric as weeknight hoops in Austin, Texas. Here’s a look at the stands a few minutes before Texas went up against in-state school TCU.
Under 10 minutes on the pregame clock at the Erwin Center before Texas takes on TCU at the top of the hour. pic.twitter.com/RFEgv891SR
— Jeff Howe (@JeffHowe247) February 20, 2020
Incredible.
Homecourt advantage does not create an advantage for Texas, which is 5-10 against the spread at home this season. The Longhorns won two in a row by double digits before losing four straight. On the other hand, West Virginia lost each of its last 5 road games.
So it will come down to who you trust more, Bob Huggins or Shaka Smart? Huggins is one of the most respected coaches in the country, and Shaka, although he has a kickass name, is likely to be fired soon. I’ll take Huggy Bear and the under. Texas unders hit in 6 of its last 8, and West Virginia hit the under 7 games in a row.
Hampton @ Gardner Webb
???
???
6:00 CST, ESPN+
As mentioned earlier, we only go after the biggest of games on the college basketball schedule, and if Hampton at Gardner Webb ain’t getting you excited, I don’t know what to tell ya. There’s a little wrinkle in this one as Gardner-Webb already has a 7-point head start. This matchup was played in January, and the shot clock broke at halftime as Hampton trailed 38-31. They’re finishing it up with one half of basketball. Twenty minutes of fury, battling for sole possession of third place in the Big South. It don’t get much bigger than this.
Unfortunately, there are no odds to be found anywhere for this wacky setup, so let’s do it ourselves. The first half added up to 69 points. Nice. So doubling that gets us to 138, maybe add 5 more factoring in late-game free throws. We’re setting the over/under at 143, and I’ll add 3 to Gardner Webb to make them clean 10-point favorites. I’m betting with myself as the bookie, so I’m taking the under 143 and Gardner Web -10. High stakes betting at its finest.
Nebraska @ Illinois
NEB -13.5
O/U 145
7:00 CST, BTN
Illinois snapped a four-game winning streak by beating Penn State on the road last week. The Illini had nearly a full week of rest leading into tonight’s home matchup with Nebraska. The Huskers are winless on the road this season as they enjoy the ongoing battle against Northwestern for the worst team in the Big Ten.
Also, here’s a hot, sexy teaser as we get closer to Selection Sunday. If Illinois finds itself in the 8-9 matchup, I’m picking them to beat a 1 seed to get to the Sweet 16. You heard it here first. Unless you heard it elsewhere.
More on this game in a little bit…
Oklahoma State @ #3 Kansas
Kansas -15.5
O/U 135
8:00 CST, ESPN
Kansas is tied among the favorites to win the national title in early April, and they’re coming off a massive road win over Baylor in what might be the biggest regular season game of the season. If this was the SEC in the fall, it would’ve been hyped as Game of the Century for months. After coming down from that high, a Monday night matchup with Oklahoma State is a pretty big letdown spot, ain’t it?
Maybe if it was at Oklahoma State, but Kansas protects home court with a 13-1 home record straight up this season. Having said that, 15.5 is a whole lot of points even against a borderline .500 Big 12 team. Both teams are making fellas some money recently as Oklahoma State covered in 5 of its last 6 games with Kansas covering 5 in a row. All together now: SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE.
Monday Payday
Hope you learned a little somethin’ about tonight’s college basketball betting slate, but it’s time to become rich. Of everything available to us, let’s invest in Illinois -13.5 vs. Nebraska. The Huskers are an incredibly bad college hoops team, and it’s not getting better coming off consecutive blowout losses at home against Wisconsin and Michigan State.
For as bad as Nebraska has been, the oddsmakers aren’t even adjusting fast enough as they’ve covered just once in their last 6 games. Now they’re going on the road to play a healthy Illinois team with nearly a full week of rest? I’ll take the Illini, and they’ll be covering by halftime.
Best of luck out there tonight. We will reconvene tomorrow.
Keep the conversation going by reaching out to Erik Buchinger on Twitter or email erik@deceptivespeed.com.